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Forex News Timeline

Monday, February 13, 2023

Economists at ANZ Bank expect the US Dollar to remain resilient ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report tomorrow. However, the greenback cou

Economists at ANZ Bank expect the US Dollar to remain resilient ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report tomorrow. However, the greenback could see some selling pressure following the release. USD to be supported at the current range around 103 “January US CPI is the key event for the DXY, with Core Services Excluding Housing in focus. On a YoY basis, we expect January core CPI would result in core easing to 5.4% from 5.7% and headline to 6.2% from 6.5%.”  "Based on our forecasts of a slight decline in YoY figures, some easing in USD strength could be expected following the release.” “Ahead of CPI, we expect the USD to be supported at the current range around 103.”  

The NZD/USD pair attracts some buyers near the 0.6290 area on Monday and climbs to a fresh daily high during the first half of the European session. T

NZD/USD rebounds over 50 pips from the daily low amid the emergence of some USD selling.A modest recovery in the risk sentiment weighs the buck and benefits the risk-sensitive Kiwi.Hawkish Fed expectations, recession fears should limit the USD downside and cap the major.The NZD/USD pair attracts some buyers near the 0.6290 area on Monday and climbs to a fresh daily high during the first half of the European session. The pair is currently placed just below mid-0.6300s, though remains well within a familiar trading band held over the past week or so. The US Dollar fails to capitalise on its modest intraday gains and turns out to be a key factor lending some support to the NZD/USD pair. A softer tone surrounding the US Treasury bond yields acts as a headwind for the greenback. Apart from this, an intraday recovery in the US equity markets further undermines the safe-haven buck and benefits the risk-sensitive Kiwi. That said, worries about a deeper global economic downturn should keep a lid on any optimism in the markets. Apart from this, the prospects for further policy tightening by the Fed could help limit any meaningful downside for the USD and cap the upside for the NZD/USD pair. This, in turn, warrants some caution for bulls and before positioning for further gains. Investors now seem convinced that the Fed will stick to its hawkish stance. The bets were reaffirmed by the Labor Department's annual revisions of CPI, which showed that consumer prices rose in December instead of falling as previously estimated. Separately, the University of Michigan survey's one-year inflation expectations climbed to 4.2% in February from the 3.9% previous. This raises the risk of higher inflation print for January and dashes hopes for an imminent pause in the Fed's rate-hiking cycle. Hence, the market focus will remain glued to the crucial US CPI report on Tuesday. Heading into the key data risk, traders might refrain from placing aggressive bets around the NZD/USD pair in the absence of relevant economic data on Monday. Technical levels to watch  

Ulrich Leuchtmann, Head of FX and Commodity Research at Commerzbank, expects JPY volatility to persist as uncertainty about the BoJ's stance is set to

Ulrich Leuchtmann, Head of FX and Commodity Research at Commerzbank, expects JPY volatility to persist as uncertainty about the BoJ's stance is set to diminish gradually at best. Clarity is unlikely to arrive overnight “Even once the new BoJ governor has taken office, clarity is unlikely to arrive overnight. No experienced central banker would announce a 180° turnaround in monetary policy or any other significant strategy setting in one fell swoop. The reaction of currency markets and bond markets could be too disruptive. We should, I think, expect uncertainty about the BoJ's stance to diminish gradually at best.” “I consider the market's opinion expressed in the implied USD/JPY volatilities to be questionable. That in the very near future the direction of monetary policy will become clear (and thus generate high JPY volatility), but after that everything will be clear (and thus JPY volatility will decrease again), is in my view an over-optimistic assessment.”  

In its quarterly publication released on Monday, the European Commission revised upwards its economic growth forecast for the Eurozone to 0.9% in 2023

In its quarterly publication released on Monday, the European Commission revised upwards its economic growth forecast for the Eurozone to 0.9% in 2023 from 0.3% previously, projecting 2024 growth unchanged at 1.5%. Additional takeaways Eurozone to avoid earlier expected technical recession with 0.1% QoQ growth in Q4 2022 and 0.0% QoQ in Q1 2023 EU Commission lowers its Eurozone inflation forecast for 2023 to 5.6% YoY from 6.1% expected earlier, sees inflation of 2.5% in 2024, down from the previous forecast of 2.6%.

After having snapped a three-day winning streak on Friday, GBP/USD has started the new week in a calm manner and found it difficult to make a decisive

GBP/USD has been struggling to gather recovery momentum.1.2070 aligns as key resistance level for the pair in the short term.Wall Street's main indexes look to open flat ahead of key inflation data.After having snapped a three-day winning streak on Friday, GBP/USD has started the new week in a calm manner and found it difficult to make a decisive move in either direction. As the pair trades in a tight channel above 1.2000 early Monday, the technical outlook points to a lack of recovery momentum. The US Dollar benefited from the risk-averse market environment ahead of the weekend. On Friday, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Survey for early February revealed that the one-year inflation expectation rose to 4.2% from 3.9% in January. Ahead of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which will be published on Tuesday, this data allowed the currency to end the week on a firm footing. The Observer reported over the weekend a secret cross-party summit has been held to discuss the Brexit-related issues. The discussion was reportedly titled "How can we make Brexit work better with our neighbours in Europe?" and the introductory statement noted that that Brexit was acting as a drag on the UK's growth and limiting the economy's potential. This development, however, hasn't triggered a market reaction with the UK's FTSE 100 Index trading modestly higher on the day. Meanwhile, US stock index futures are virtually unchanged on the day after having edged lower during the Asian trading hours. The US economic docket will not be featuring any high-impact data releases on Monday and the risk perception in the second half of the day could provide a directional clue to GBP/USD. In case Wall Street's main indexes gain traction after the opening bell, the US could find it difficult to gather strength and vice versa. On Tuesday, ahead of the US inflation report, the December jobs report from the UK will be watched closely by market participants. GBP/USD Technical Analysis The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the four-hour chart stays below 50, highlighting the lack of buyer interest in the near term. GBP/USD faces strong resistance at 1.2070, where the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the latest uptrend is located. If the pair manages to clear that level, it could extend its recovery toward 1.2125 (50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA)) and 1.2150 (Fibonacci 50% retracement). On the downside,  1.2000 (static level, psychological level) acts as initial support before 1.1950 (multi-week low, static level).

AUD/USD was net almost unchanged last week around 0.69. This week's crowded calendar includes US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which could spark

AUD/USD was net almost unchanged last week around 0.69. This week's crowded calendar includes US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which could spark USD volatility, economists at Westpac report. Initial AUD/USD support lies around 0.6850/60 “AUD/USD’s sharpest movement of the week could well occur in response to the US inflation report on Tuesday.  “Any deviation from the median forecast of 6.2%yr overall, 5.5%yr ex-food and energy seems likely to spark significant US Dollar movement.” “Ahead of the CPI, initial AUD/USD support lies around 0.6850/60, resistance around 0.7080.”  

The GBP/USD pair edges lower for the second straight day on Monday and remains on the defensive through the first half of the European session. The pa

GBP/USD remains on the defensive for the second successive day amid modest USD strength.Hawkish Fed expectations and the prevalent risk-off mood continue to underpin the greenback.Expectations that the BoE rate-hiking cycle is nearing the end further seem to weigh on the GBP.Traders await this week’s key macro data from the UK and the US for a fresh directional impetus.The GBP/USD pair edges lower for the second straight day on Monday and remains on the defensive through the first half of the European session. The pair is currently placed near the mid-1.2000s, just a few pips above the daily low, and seems vulnerable to extending last week's retracement slide from the vicinity of the 1.2200 mark. A combination of supporting factors assists the US Dollar to reverse a modest intraday slide and hold steady near a one-high, which, in turn, is seen weighing on the GBP/USD pair. A more hawkish commentary by several FOMC members, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, back the case for further policy tightening by the US central bank. This, along with the prevalent risk-off environment amid looming recession risks, continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven greenback. In fact, investors now seem convinced that the Fed will stick to its hawkish stance and the bets were reaffirmed by the incoming US macro data. Against the backdrop of a blockbuster US monthly jobs report, the Labor Department's annual revisions of CPI on Friday showed that consumer prices rose in December instead of falling as previously estimated. Separately, the University of Michigan survey's one-year inflation expectations climbed to 4.2% this month from the 3.9% previous. This raises the risk of higher inflation print for January and dashes hopes for an imminent pause in the Fed's rate-hiking cycle. In contrast, the Bank of England (BoE) is becoming increasingly unsure as to whether further policy tightening is warranted. It is worth recalling that BoE said that inflation will fall more rapidly during the second half of 2023. Moreover, the UK central bank, in its monetary policy statement, removed the phrase that they would "respond forcefully, as necessary". The aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair is to the downside. That said, traders might refrain from placing aggressive bets ahead of this week's key macro releases from the UK and the US. The UK monthly jobs report is due on Tuesday, which will be followed by the US CPI report. The focus will then shift to the UK CPI report, along with the US Retail Sales data, on Wednesday and the US Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. In the meantime, the USD price dynamics will continue to play a key role in influencing the GBP/USD pair and allow traders to grab short-term opportunities. Later during the early North American session, traders will take cues from a scheduled speech by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman. Apart from this, the broader risk sentiment should drive the USD demand and provide some impetus to the major. Technical levels to watch  

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Mario Centeno made some comments on the inflation and monetary policy outlook, in his speech on Monday. Key q

 European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Mario Centeno made some comments on the inflation and monetary policy outlook, in his speech on Monday. Key quotes Inflation is going down faster than we expected. Smaller hikes would need mid-term inflation nearing 2%. March forecasts will help determine peak rate. Forecasts are likely to show a faster drop in inflation. Economy and labor market are showing resilience. Market reaction The latest ECB commentary is having little to no impact on the EUR/USD pair, as it keeps its downside consolidative phase intact at around 1.0675.

In an interview with The Overshoot, Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Jonathan Haskel said on Monday, “I would prefer to make policy with much more at

In an interview with The Overshoot, Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Jonathan Haskel said on Monday, “I would prefer to make policy with much more attention on the data flow over the next few months.” Additional comments “What we’ve seen in the UK. is a very US-style labor market in the last 40-odd years.”  “We have downgraded our forecast of structural output growth. Around 2015-2018 we just decided that we had had ~2% productivity growth, pre-GFC and ~1% productivity growth post-GFC. Then there’s the vexed question of Brexit. More recently, the decline has been an hours effect, because of the rise in inactivity.” “It is true that when we raise rates that is not good for investment. I absolutely accept that, and therefore we are potentially contributing to that very poor capital investment.” Market reaction At the time of writing, GBP/USD is losing 0.10% on the day, trading at 1.0245. The pair is unperturbed by the above comments.

US Dollar Index (DXY) clings to small daily gains. Economists at ING expect DXY to return to the 105 level soon. Balance of risks appears skewed to th

US Dollar Index (DXY) clings to small daily gains. Economists at ING expect DXY to return to the 105 level soon. Balance of risks appears skewed to the upside for the USD today “The Dollar appears in a position to at least hang on to recent gains this week.” “We could see a return to 105.00 in DXY soon.” “Today’s price action may follow a wait-and-see approach given there are no data releases, but we have observed a tendency of markets to move closer to defensive long-Dollar positions into key risk events.” “The balance of risks appears skewed to the upside for the Dollar today.”  

European Central Bank (ECB) Vice-President Luis de Guindos said on Monday, “rate increases beyond March are to depend on data.” “The ECB are a bit mor

European Central Bank (ECB) Vice-President Luis de Guindos said on Monday, “rate increases beyond March are to depend on data.” “The ECB are a bit more positive on the economic outlook,” de Guindos added.

EUR/GBP is trading around the mid-0.8800s. Economists at ING believe that the pair could extend its slide toward 0.8800 but continue to see Euro outpe

EUR/GBP is trading around the mid-0.8800s. Economists at ING believe that the pair could extend its slide toward 0.8800 but continue to see Euro outperformance in the second quarter of the year. Running out of reasons to stay bearish on EUR/GBP for longer “The EUR/GBP drop could extend to 0.8800 but we think markets are running out of reasons to stay bearish on the pair for longer.” “We continue to see Euro outperformance from the second quarter and 0.9000 is our target level in EUR/GBP in the second half of 2023.”  

The AUD/USD pair attracts some buyers near the 0.6890 area and recovers around 40 pips from a four-day low touched earlier this Monday. Spot prices cl

AUD/USD reverses an intraday dip to sub-0.6900 levels amid a modest USD downtick.Hawkish Fed expectations to limit the USD fall and cap the pair amid the risk-off mood.Traders might also prefer to wait for the release of the crucial US CPI report on Tuesday.The AUD/USD pair attracts some buyers near the 0.6890 area and recovers around 40 pips from a four-day low touched earlier this Monday. Spot prices climb to the 0.6930 area, or a fresh daily top during the early European session and for now, seems to have stalled last week's pullback from levels just above the 0.7000 psychological mark. The US Dollar struggles to capitalize on its intraday gains amid a modest downtick in the US Treasury bond yields and turns out to be a key factor lending some support to the AUD/USD pair. That said, the prospects for further policy tightening by the Fed should help limit the downside for the USD. This, along with the prevalent risk-off environment, warrants caution before positioning for any meaningful upside for the risk-sensitive Aussie. Several FOMC members, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, last week stressed the need for additional interest rate hikes to fully gain control of inflation. The bets were boosted by the Labor Department's annual revisions of CPI data on Friday, which showed that consumer prices rose in December instead of falling as previously estimated. Furthermore, the University of Michigan survey's one-year inflation expectations climbed to 4.2% for February. This raises the risk of higher inflation print for January and reaffirms expectations that the Fed will stick to its hawkish stance. This, in turn, might hold back traders from placing bearish bets around the USD ahead of the latest US consumer inflation figures, due for release on Tuesday. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the AUD/USD pair is to the downside and any subsequent move up might still be seen as a selling opportunity. There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Monday, leaving the USD at the mercy of the US bond yields. Traders will further take cues from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman's scheduled speech later during the early North American session. This, along with the broader risk sentiment, could influence the USD price dynamics and contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities around the AUD/USD pair. Technical levels to watch  

Economists at Deutsche Bank expect the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs to climb towards 1.10 and 1.25 by Q2, respectively. USD to be on a sustained downward

Economists at Deutsche Bank expect the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs to climb towards 1.10 and 1.25 by Q2, respectively. USD to be on a sustained downward trend from here onwards “The USD has further weakened since the start of 2023, and we expect it to be on a sustained downward trend from here onwards.” “There is scope for the EUR/USD to catch-up to favourable energy and monetary policy developments and reach 1.10 by Q2.” “Cable appears cheap and the high-beta cross should benefit from the more supportive risk backdrop in H1. We forecast GBP/USD at 1.25 by Q2.”  

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) above expectations (0.4%) in January: Actual (0.6%)

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (2.9%) in January: Actual (3.3%)

Gold price extends its consolidative price move through the early European session on Monday and is currently placed around the $1,865 region. The XAU

Gold price oscillates in a narrow range just above a one-month low and 50-day SMA support.Bets for additional rate hikes by the Federal Reserve act as a headwind for the yellow metal.A stronger US Dollar contributes to capping the XAU/USD, though recession fears limit losses.Gold price extends its consolidative price move through the early European session on Monday and is currently placed around the $1,865 region. The XAU/USD manages to hold above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support, though remains well within the striking distance of over a one-month low touched on Friday. Hawkish Federal Reserve acts as a headwind for Gold price The prospects for further policy tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) continue to underpin the US Dollar and act as a headwind for the non-yielding Gold price. In fact, a slew of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policymakers, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, last week stressed the need for additional interest rate hikes to fully gain control of inflation. Moreover, the Labor Department's annual revisions of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed on Friday that consumer prices rose in December instead of falling as previously estimated. Adding to this, the University of Michigan survey's one-year inflation expectations climbed to 4.2% this month from the 3.9% previous and reaffirmed expectations for a more hawkish Fed. Recession fears lend support to safe-haven XAU/USD This, in turn, assists the USD to stand tall near a one-month high, which is seen as another factor that contributes to capping the upside for the US Dollar-denominated Gold price. That said, the prevalent risk-off environment - amid looming recession risks - lends some support to the safe-haven precious metal and helps limit the downside, at least for the time being. Focus remains on consumer inflation figures from United States Apart from this, the risk of higher inflation print for January lends support to the Gold price, which is considered a hedge against rising inflation. Hence, the market focus remains glued to the crucial CPI report from the United States (US), due for release on Tuesday. The data could influence the Fed's rate-hike path and determine the near-term trajectory for the XAU/USD. Gold price technical outlook From a technical perspective, a sustained break and acceptance below the 50-day SMA, currently around the $1,856 region, will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. The gold price might then accelerate the fall towards The XAU/USD could then accelerate the fall towards the next relevant support near the $1,830 area en route to the $1,818-$1,817 zone and the $1,800 round figure. On the flip side, any subsequent move up is likely to confront stiff resistance near the $1,875 region. This is followed by the $1,900 round-figure mark. The latter should act as a pivotal point, above which a bout of a short-covering could lift the Gold price to the $1,925-$1,930 congestion zone. Key levels to watch  

Here is what you need to know on Monday, February 13: Markets remain risk-averse early Monday as investors keep an eye on geopolitics while refraining

Here is what you need to know on Monday, February 13: Markets remain risk-averse early Monday as investors keep an eye on geopolitics while refraining from taking large positions ahead of this week's key events. In the absence of high-tier data releases, risk perception should continue to drive the market action in the remainder of the day. On Friday, the data published by the University of Michigan revealed that the year-ahead inflation expectation component of the Consumer Sentiment Survey rose to 4.2% in early February from 3.9% in February. This data helped the US Dollar preserve its strength against its rivals late Friday and the US Dollar Index (DXY) closed the second straight week in positive territory. In the European morning, DXY clings to small daily gains near 103.70 and the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield holds steady above 3.7%. Reflecting the cautious mood, US stock index futures are down between 0.25% and 0.35%. Meanwhile, the US military reportedly shot down an unidentified object, the third one since the downing of the Chinese balloon, flying above Michigan on Sunday.EUR/USD lost over 100 pips last week and stays in a consolidation phase below 1.0700 on Monday. On Tuesday, Eurostat will publish the Employment Change and Gross Domestic Product data for the fourth quarter. Following last week's sharp decline, GBP/USD moves sideways at around 1.2050 to start the week.AUD/USD holds steady slightly above 0.6900. In the early trading hours of the Asian session on Tuesday, National Australia Bank's Business Confidence data will be watched upon for fresh impetus alongside Westpac Consumer Confidence Index. Despite the broad-based US Dollar strength, USD/CAD fell over 100 pips on Friday. The monthly data published by Statistics Canada showed that Net Change Employment was up 150,000 in January, compared to the market expectation of 15,000, and provided a boost to the Canadian Dollar. Following Friday's volatile action, USD/JPY gathered bullish momentum early Monday and was last seen trading near 132.20, where it was up more than 0.5% on a daily basis. Reuters reported on Monday that Japan's Upper House of Parliament has scheduled confirmation hearings on government nominees for the new Bank of Japan (BoJ) governor and his two deputies on February 27. Markets widely expect the Japanese government to formally nominate Kazuo Ueda on Tuesday, February 14. Pressured by rising US Treasury bond yields, Gold price stayed on the back foot ahead of the weekend and failed to stage a rebound. In the early European morning, XAU/USD fluctuates in a tight range slightly above $1,860.Bitcoin stayed relatively quiet over the weekend but ended the second straight week in negative territory, losing around 5%. BTC/USD trades up and down in a narrow channel below $22,000 early Monday. Ethereum stays in a consolidation phase and trades at around $1,500.  

Turkey Current Account Balance dipped from previous $-3.666B to $-5.91B in December

EUR/GBP grinds near an intraday high surrounding 0.8850 during the initial hours of Monday morning in London. In doing so, the cross-currency pair sta

EUR/GBP fades bounce off monthly support, grinds near intraday high of late.Sustained trading beyond 200-SMA, looming bull cross on MACD favor buyers.Weekly resistance line guards immediate upside ahead of monthly high.EUR/GBP grinds near an intraday high surrounding 0.8850 during the initial hours of Monday morning in London. In doing so, the cross-currency pair stays above the 200-Simple Moving Average (SMA) despite fading bounce off the monthly support line. It’s worth noting that the impending bull cross on the MACD and steady RSI (14) joins the quote’s successful trading above the key moving average to keep buyers hopeful. That said, a one-week-old descending trend line restricts the EUR/GBP pair’s immediate upside to near 0.8870. Following that, the 0.8900 round figure and multiple hurdles near 0.8910 could act as the last defense of the pair buyers before directing the quote toward the monthly high of near 0.8980. It should be observed that the EUR/GBP run-up beyond 0.8990 will need validation from the 0.9000 psychological magnet to aim for the previous yearly high surrounding 0.9250. On the contrary, the 200-SMA and an ascending trend line from January 19, close to 0.8835 and 0.8828 in that order, restrict the short-term downside of the EUR/GBP pair. Following that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s January-February upside and the late January swing low, respectively near 0.8820 and 0.8760, will be in focus. Overall, EUR/GBP is likely to remain firmer unless offering clear trading below 0.8828. EUR/GBP: Four-hour chart Trend: Further upside expected  

Gold price is trading with moderate losses. XAU/USD could target $1,825 if the 50-Daily Moving Average support fails, FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta reports.

Gold price is trading with moderate losses. XAU/USD could target $1,825 if the 50-Daily Moving Average support fails, FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta reports. Gold price attacks 50-DMA again “Gold sellers again took charge on Monday, attacking the 50DMA, now at $1,857. Daily closing below the latter is needed to extend the downside break from the bearish continuation pattern toward the $1,850 psychological level.” “A fresh sell-off toward the January 5 low of $1,825 could be in the offing on a sustained break below the $1,850 demand area.” “Should Gold bulls manage to take out the intraday high at $1,866, then a test of the bear flag support-turned-resistance at $1,877 could be in the offing. Acceptance above the latter is critical to initiating a meaningful recovery toward the $1,885 static resistance.”  

FX option expiries for Feb 13 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0930 842m 1.1000 337m - USD/JPY: US

FX option expiries for Feb 13 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts         1.0930 842m 1.1000 337m - USD/JPY: USD amounts                      126.50 700m 127.50 426m 130.15 426m - USD/CAD: USD amounts        1.3000 644m

USD/JPY refreshes intraday high around 132.30 during early Monday in Europe. In doing so, the Yen pair reverses the previous week’s losses amid hopes

USD/JPY picks up bids to renew intraday high as US Dollar cheers risk-off mood.Hopes of doves to keep the BoJ reins weigh on Yen amid sluggish yields.Upbeat US inflation expectations, hawkish Fed concerns keep buyers hopeful.Japan policymakers verdict on BoJ leader, Japan Q4 GDP and US CPI will be crucial for clear directions.USD/JPY refreshes intraday high around 132.30 during early Monday in Europe. In doing so, the Yen pair reverses the previous week’s losses amid hopes of an easy money policy to prevail for long. Adding strength to the pair’s upside bias is the US Dollar’s demand amid a risk-off mood and also due to the hawkish bias surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed), not to forget steady yields. Talks surrounding Kazuo Ueda’s appointment as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor backed concerns over the ultra-easy monetary policy and favored the USD/JPY bulls afterward. On the other hand, fears about the mystery objects flying over the US and China underpin the US Dollar’s haven demand and propel the USD/JPY prices. The US shot down nearly four such objects while China prepares to hit one such unidentified object while weighing on the market sentiment and fueling the DXY. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY), was up 0.20% near 103.80 by the press time. Elsewhere, the mildly hawkish Fed talks join Friday’s strong US Consumer Sentiment and US inflation expectations to offer extra strength to the USD/JPY prices, via US Dollar strength. During the weekend, Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker pushed back the chatters of a Fed rate cut during 2023. However, the policymaker did mention, “Fed not likely to cut this year but may be able to in 2024 if inflation starts ebbing.”  His comments were mostly in line with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious optimism and hence challenge the US Dollar buyers. Amid these plays, US stock futures fade the previous day’s corrective bounce while the Treasury bond yields remain sluggish around the multi-day high marked on Friday, which in turn helped the US Dollar Index (DXY) to grind higher after a two-week uptrend. Moving ahead, the preliminary readings of Japan’s fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product, up for publishing on Tuesday, will precede the Japanese policymakers’ official selection of the BoJ leaders to direct short-term USD/JPY moves. Following that, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January will be crucial for short-term Yen pair directions. Technical analysis A daily closing beyond the 50-DMA, around 132.20 by the press time, appears necessary for the USD/JPY bulls to keep the reins.  

According to economists polled by Bloomberg, Euroa area inflation is still likely to loom above the European Central Bank (ECB) target of 2.0% heading

According to economists polled by Bloomberg, Euroa area inflation is still likely to loom above the European Central Bank (ECB) target of 2.0% heading further out in 2025. Key takeaways “The headline and underlying measures are both predicted to average 2.1% that year.” “Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like energy and is currently of particular concern for the ECB, will peak at its current level of 5.2% in the first quarter before easing to 3.6% in the final three months of this year.” “Respondents see a 0.2% contraction in gross domestic product in the first quarter, followed a rebound. GDP will grow 0.4% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024.”

The USD/MXN pair is struggling to extend its recovery move above 18.70 in the early European session. The asset attempted a rebound move after refresh

USD/MXN is struggling to extend its recovery move above 18.70 amid the risk-off mood.A Reuters poll indicates that the monthly headline CPI and core inflation will escalate by 0.4%.Banxico is proving to be an inflation fighter after the departure of Gerardo Esquivel, who was considered a big dove.The USD/MXN pair is struggling to extend its recovery move above 18.70 in the early European session. The asset attempted a rebound move after refreshing the weekly low at 18.63, however, the recovery move looks less confident as the market sentiment is extremely negative. Investors have underpinned the risk-aversion theme as airborne threats on the United States have triggered geopolitical tensions. Also, soaring anxiety among investors ahead of the release of the United States inflation data has added to the risk-off impulse. S&P500 futures are continuously adding losses as investors expect that higher inflation will add to the consensus for higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The US Dollar Index (DXY) has turned sideways after shifting its auction above 103.40 as investors are getting prepared for a fresh upside amid a higher appeal for safe-haven assets. Higher interest rates by the Fed after a surprise rise in inflation will result in more divergence in policy comparison of other economies with the Fed. The alpha provided on 10-year US Treasury yields is holding itself above 3.74% as bets scaled higher for more stubbornness in the US inflation. A Reuters poll indicates that the monthly headline CPI and core inflation that excludes oil and food prices will escalate by 0.4%. The annual headline CPI is seen lower at 5.8% against the former release of 6.5% while the core inflation that excludes oil and food prices is seen lower at 5.4% versus 5.8% in the former release. Meanwhile, the hawkish monetary policy by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) has failed to provide strength to the Mexican Peso. Last week, Banxico hiked interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) to 11%. Analysts at Commerzbank stated their views on the monetary policy “Banxico is proving to be an inflation fighter after the departure of central bank member Gerardo Esquivel, who was considered a big dove, which should in principle help the Peso.” 

USD/CAD retreats from intraday high as buyers struggle to overcome the key Hourly Moving Average (HMA) during early Monday in Europe. Even so, the Loo

USD/CAD consolidates the biggest daily slump in over a month.61.8% Fibonacci retracement triggers corrective bounce amid oversold RSI.200-HMA joins sluggish MACD signals to probe Loonie pair buyers.USD/CAD retreats from intraday high as buyers struggle to overcome the key Hourly Moving Average (HMA) during early Monday in Europe. Even so, the Loonie pair prints 0.20% intraday gains around 1.3375 as it pares the heaviest daily loss in five weeks, marked the previous day. The quote’s recovery could be linked to its bounce off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of February 02-06 upside amid the oversold RSI (14) conditions. However, the 200-HMA level challenges the USD/CAD pair’s immediate upside near 1.3385. Given the bullish MACD signals, despite being sluggish of late, the Loonie pair may remain on the bull’s radar, suggesting a clear break of the immediate HMA hurdle surrounding 1.3385. Following that, 1.3415 may test the upside momentum before directing the USD/CAD bulls toward the two-week-old horizontal resistance area near 1.3470. In a case where USD/CAD remains firmer past 1.3470, it can aim for a late January swing high near 1.3520. Alternatively, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, also known as the golden Fibonacci ratio, puts a floor under the USD/CAD prices of around 1.3340, a break of which highlights the 1.3300 round figure for the bears. Should USD/CAD breaks the 1.3300 round figure, the monthly low and November 2022 trough, respectively near 1.3260 and 1.3225, will gain the market’s attention. USD/CAD: Hourly chart Trend: Further downside expected  

WTI crude oil pares the previous day’s gains around $79.00, down 1.22% intraday during early Monday, as energy buyers fail to ignore the broad risk-of

WTI extends pullback from two-week high amid sour sentiment.Tensions surrounding unidentified objects, hawkish Fed weigh on commodity prices.OPEC expects upbeat energy demand, Russia braces for Oil production cut.US inflation data will be crucial for clear directions.WTI crude oil pares the previous day’s gains around $79.00, down 1.22% intraday during early Monday, as energy buyers fail to ignore the broad risk-off mood. In doing so, the black gold also falls short of cheering the price-positive news from Russia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Russia will cut crude oil production by half a million barrels per day starting in March, mentioned CNN Business. The news also cites the Western sanctions on Moscow’s energy supply curbs as the catalyst behind the move that propelled Oil prices on Friday. On the same line, OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais said over the weekend at an energy conference in Cairo that the cartel “expects global oil demand to exceed pre-pandemic levels in 2023,” reported Reuters. While the hopes of higher demand and lesser supplies put a floor under the Oil price, the market’s risk-aversion joins the firmer US Dollar to weigh on the commodity prices. Among the key catalysts fueling the US Dollar Index (DXY), up 0.20% near 103.80 by the press time, are the fears about the mystery objects flying over the US and China. The US shot down nearly four such objects while China prepares to hit one such unidentified object while weighing on the market sentiment and fueling the DXY. The market’s risk-off joins the mildly positive Fedspeak, especially after Friday’s strong US Consumer Sentiment and inflation expectations, to also weigh on the WTI crude oil. During the weekend, Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker pushed back the chatters of a Fed rate cut during 2023. However, the policymaker did mention, “Fed not likely to cut this year but may be able to in 2024 if inflation starts ebbing.”  His comments were mostly in line with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious optimism and hence challenge the US Dollar buyers. Looking forward, WTI crude oil may await more clues for clear directions amid a light calendar. Hence, it may extend the latest pullback ahead of Tuesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January. Should the US inflation data arrive as firmer, the fears of hawkish Fed actions and economic slowdown weigh on the energy benchmark. Technical analysis WTI crude oil remains sidelined between the one-week-old support line and the 100-DMA, respectively near $78.80 and $80.90.  

EUR/USD is looking to build an intermediate cushion around 1.0660 in the early European session. The major currency is not expected to conquer the dow

EUR/USD is expected to deliver more weakness below 1.0660 amid the dismal market mood.A surprise upside in the US inflation will strengthen hawkish Fed bets.European Central Bank policymakers have been reiterating that Eurozone won’t face a deep recession.EUR/USD has shifted its business below the 61.8% Fibo retracement placed below 1.0700.EUR/USD is looking to build an intermediate cushion around 1.0660 in the early European session. The major currency is not expected to conquer the downside bias as the risk-off impulse is extremely solid amid the airborne threats to the United States and anxiety among the market participants ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will release on Tuesday. After registering the biggest weekly loss since December, S&P500 futures have added further losses amid disappointing results by the US equities, portraying a sheer decline in the risk appetite of investors. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has shifted its business above 103.40 and is expected to add more gains as the weekend airborne threat on the US after the Chinese spy balloon event, which was later identified as a civilian by the Chinese economy, has turned investors risk averse. Meanwhile, expectations of a higher US inflation rate on Tuesday are continuously strengthening the return generated on the US Treasury bonds. The 10-year US Treasury yields have scaled above 3.74%. Upbeat labor market and a rebound in used car prices could propel US inflation The US Inflation is demonstrating a declining trend for the past three months significantly, supported by lower energy and used car prices. From a whooping figure of 9.1%, the headline inflation has already corrected to 6.5% and the current consensus is favoring further decline to 5.8%. And, the core inflation that excludes oil and food prices is seen lower at 5.4% vs. the former release of 5.8%. A strong labor market in the United States and a rebound in the prices of used cars are expected to propel the employment cost index as the shortage of labor will be offset by higher employment proposals from firms. This could trigger a rebound in the inflation projections as households with higher earnings in possession can lead to higher consumer spending. Bloomberg reported that average used-vehicle prices rose 2.5% in January according to data from Manheim. Higher inflation rate to favor continuation of policy tightening by the Fed The street started expecting that the decline in consumer spending and scale of economic activities will result in a pause in the policy tightening spell by the Federal Reserve (Fed). However, renewed concerns of a rebound in inflation projections have faded the policy tightening expectations. Fed chair Jerome Powell has vouched for further interest rate hikes last week as a consideration of tightening relaxations or rate cuts could be premature at the current stage. Meanwhile, hawkish commentary from Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker has infused fresh blood into the US Dollar. Fed Harker reiterated his view that the central bank will continue hiking interest rates to above 5%. The Fed policymaker has favored a small interest rate hike and sees no recession ahead. Also, the expression of a rate cut is unlikely this year. Eurozone GDP is in focus After recording signs of softening inflation in the Eurozone, investors are shifting their focus towards the release of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) data, which will release on Tuesday. As per the consensus, the economic data for the quarterly and annual basis are seen similar to its former releases at 0.1% and 1.9% respectively. This indicates that the Eurozone economy has not seen a recession in CY2022. Also, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers have been reiterating that Eurozone won’t face a deep recession, if it happens it would be shallow as the labor market is extremely solid. EUR/USD technical outlook EUR/USD has shifted its auction profile below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement placed from January 6 low at 1.0483 to February 1 high at 1.1033) at 1.0694 on a two-hour scale. The major currency pair is expected to deliver more weakness as an auction shift below the 61.8% Fibo favors for a complete test of downside levels of Fibo placement. Also, the Euro is struggling to hold itself above the horizontal support placed from February 07 low at 1.0669. The Euro bulls have faced barricades each time after encountering the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at 1.0728, at the time of writing. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) witnessed hurdled around 60.00 and has now slipped into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, which indicates more weakness ahead.  

Silver price (XAG/USD) drops 0.85% intraday as it renews the 2.5-month low near $21.80 during early Monday. In doing so, the bright metal pokes the 10

Silver price takes offers to renew multi-day low, fades the previous day’s corrective bounce off 100-DMA.Bearish MACD signals, failure to rebound from key DMA favor XAG/USD sellers.Nearly oversold RSI (14) line challenges further downside of metal.200-DMA lures Silver bears unless XAG/USD stays below $23.25.Silver price (XAG/USD) drops 0.85% intraday as it renews the 2.5-month low near $21.80 during early Monday. In doing so, the bright metal pokes the 100-DMA while reversing the previous day’s corrective bounce off the multi-day low. Given the quote’s inability to rebound from the 100-DMA, as well as the bearish MACD signals, the XAG/USD sellers are likely to keep the reins. However, the 200-DMA support, close to the $21.00 round figure, appears a tough nut to crack for the Silver bears. Hence, the precious metal is likely to break the immediate DMA support surrounding $21.80 but may witness a limited downside. It’s worth noting that the October 2022 peak surrounding $21.25 may act as an extra filter towards the south, before hitting the 200-DMA. Meanwhile, Silver buyers need to portray a successful recovery beyond November 2022 peak surrounding $22.25 to regain the market’s confidence. Even so, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since early December 2022, close to $23.25, could challenge the XAG/USD bulls. Following that, a jungle of resistances around $24.30 may test the Silver buyers before directing them to the monthly high of around $24.65, also the highest since April 2022. Silver price: Daily chart Trend: Limited downside expected  

GBP/USD clings to mild gains near 1.2050 heading into Monday’s London open as traders brace for this week’s key data from the UK and the US. Also exer

GBP/USD holds lower ground amid the broad US Dollar rebound.Optimism surrounding UK workers, upbeat British GDP put a floor under the Cable price.Fears of US-China tussle, hawkish Fed and cautious mood ahead of key data favor US Dollar despite inactive yields.GBP/USD clings to mild gains near 1.2050 heading into Monday’s London open as traders brace for this week’s key data from the UK and the US. Also exerting downside pressure on the Cable pair is the risk-off mood and the firmer US Dollar. However, hopes of overcoming the British workers’ strikes and recently firmer data from the UK seem to put a floor under the prices. During the weekend, Reuters rolled out the news suggesting that the British firms are ready to refill the staff gaps even at the cost of the biggest pay rises since 2012. The news could help the UK policymakers overcome multi-week-old workers’ strikes and help the economy avoid recession, as well as propel the inflation and help the Bank of England (BoE) to remain hawkish. However, this week’s UK jobs report will be important to watch for clear directions. It should be noted that the last week’s UK growth numbers helped British Chancellor Jeremy Hunt to mention that “the fact the UK was the fastest growing economy in the G7 last year, as well as avoiding a recession, shows our economy is more resilient than many feared." On the other hand, the market’s risk-off mood underpinned the US Dollar’s run-up amid mildly positive Fedspeak, especially after Friday’s strong US Consumer Sentiment and inflation expectations. During the weekend, Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker pushed back the chatters of a Fed rate cut during 2023. However, the policymaker did mention, “Fed not likely to cut this year but may be able to in 2024 if inflation starts ebbing.”  His comments were mostly in line with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious optimism and hence challenge the US Dollar buyers. Against this backdrop, US stock futures fade the previous day’s corrective bounce while the Treasury bond yields remain sluggish around the multi-day high marked on Friday, which in turn helped the US Dollar Index (DXY) to grind higher after a two-week uptrend. Looking forward, Tuesday’s UK employment numbers will precede US Consumer Price Index (CPI) to direct short-term GBP/USD moves. Following that, Wednesday’s UK inflation numbers data will be important for clear directions. Given the comparatively more hawkish comments from the Bank of England (BoE) officials, than the Fed policymakers, the GBP/USD price may witness recovery in case the US CPI disappoints. Also read: GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: For how long can 200 DMA hold the fort? Focus on US/UK inflation Technical analysis Although the failure to cross the 50-DMA hurdle surrounding 1.2185 joins bearish MACD signals to favor GBP/USD sellers, a daily closing below the three-month-old ascending support line, close to 1.2020, appears necessary to convince bears.  

Citing sources, Reuters reported on Monday, Japan's Upper House of Parliament has scheduled confirmation hearings on government nominees for the new B

Citing sources, Reuters reported on Monday, Japan's Upper House of Parliament has scheduled confirmation hearings on government nominees for the new Bank of Japan (BoJ) governor and his two deputies on February 27.

Markets in the Asian domain are demonstrating immense volatility as rising odds of a surprise upside in the United States inflationary pressures amid

Asian stocks are displaying volatility inspired by US airborne threats and the inflation release.The announcement of Kazuo Ueda as the next BoJ Governor failed to infuse strength into the Japanese equities.Oil price has extended its losses below $79.00 as investors have ignored the oil supply cut by Russia.Markets in the Asian domain are demonstrating immense volatility as rising odds of a surprise upside in the United States inflationary pressures amid an upbeat labor market and a recovery in the prices of used cars have strengthened the risk of a recession in the US. S&P500 futures are showing losses in the Asian SESSION. The 500-US stocks basket has carry-forwarded the weekly losses further amid the risk aversion theme. US airborne threats are escalating and have added to the higher inflation fears. At the press time, Japan’s Nikkei225 tumbles 1.04%, Hang Seng dropped 0.50%, KOSPI surrendered 0.82%, Nifty50 slipped 0.45%. While ChinaA50 jumped 0.81%. Chinese equities have witnessed decent gains in the morning as investors have digested the expression of deflation in China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released on Friday. The economy has reported lower price pressures despite the administration and the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) advocating expansionary policy. However, signs are conveying that the demand is still downbeat and the economy will spend sufficient time in achieving pre-pandemic growth. A consideration of academician Kazuo Ueda as the next Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor after Haruhiko Kuroda will step down in April, as reported by Nikkei Asian Review, failed to provide strength to the Japanese stocks. For further guidance, investors are keeping an eye on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which will release on Tuesday. The economic data is seen expanding by 2.0% on an annual basis and 0.5% on a quarterly front. On the oil front, the oil price has extended its losses below $79.00 as investors have ignored the announcement of an oil supply cut by Russia. Moscow announced a supply cut by 5% from March in retaliation against the price cap levied by the West to impact its funding for arms and ammunition in its war against Ukraine.  

USD/INR marches towards 82.80, up 0.30% intraday, as it snaps the three-day downtrend during early Monday. In doing so, the Indian Rupee (INR) pair pi

USD/INR picks up bids to pare the previous losses amid risk-off mood.Fears surrounding mystery objects, hawkish Fed roil risk profile and underpin US Dollar after Friday’s upbeat data.Light calendar, cautious mood ahead of key data/events also exert downside pressure on Indian Rupee.USD/INR marches towards 82.80, up 0.30% intraday, as it snaps the three-day downtrend during early Monday. In doing so, the Indian Rupee (INR) pair picks up bids to reverse the pullback from the previous monthly high as the US Dollar remains firmer amid the sour sentiment. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rises 0.20% intraday to 103.80 after a two-week uptrend as Fed talks remain hawkish while the US data appear positive. Adding strength to the greenback could be its safe-haven demand as the risk profile weakens amid geopolitical concerns surrounding unidentified objects that flew over the borders surrounding the US and China. US Military General recently turned down the market’s fears of Chinese spying on the US by saying, “(We) have no reason to think latest objects are Chinese.” Even so, the fact that the US shot down nearly four such objects and China prepares to hit one weighs on sentiment. On a different page, upbeat US inflation expectations and firmer Michigan Consumer Sentiment for February may have allowed Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker to push back the chatters of a Fed rate cut during 2023. However, the policymaker did mention, “Fed not likely to cut this year but may be able to in 2024 if inflation starts ebbing.”  His comments were mostly in line with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious optimism and hence challenge the US Dollar buyers. At home, recovery in Adani stocks and optimism surrounding the government’s deficit-cutting measures seem to battle with the broadly downbeat sentiment due to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) hawkish bias. It’s worth noting that the exodus of foreign fund outflows, due to the Adani saga, also weighs on the Indian Rupee. Amid these plays, the S&P 500 Futures fade the previous day’s corrective bounce off a one-week low, down 0.35% around 4,080 at the latest, whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields remain sidelined near 3.73% after refreshing a five-week high on Friday. Further, the Indian equity benchmarks are mildly offered by the press time. Looking forward, USD/INR pair traders may witness lackluster moves ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, up for publishing on Tuesday. Technical analysis USD/INR pair’s U-turn from 50-DMA, close to 82.20 by the press time, allows pair buyers to aim for a four-month-old descending resistance line, near 82.90.  

The AUD/USD pair has shown a responsive buying action after surrendering the round-level support of 0.6900 in the Asian session. The Aussie asset has

The recovery move by AUD/USD might meet offers amid the risk-off mood.A surprise rise in the US inflation would accelerate rate hike odds by the Fed.A confident drop below the H&S neckline will trigger a bearish reversal.The AUD/USD pair has shown a responsive buying action after surrendering the round-level support of 0.6900 in the Asian session. The Aussie asset has attempted a recovery move, however, the Australian Dollar could retreat ahead as the risk impulse is quite negative amid airborne threats to the United States. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to recapture the 103.50 resistance ahead investors are getting anxious ahead of the release of the United State inflation data. S&P500 futures are extending their losses as investors are expecting that a surprise rise in the US inflation would accelerate rate hike odds by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and eventually will escalate recession fears. The 10-year US Treasury yields are struggling to extend gains above 3.75%. AUD/USD is completing the last leg of the Head and Shoulder chart pattern on a four-hour scale. The aforementioned chart pattern is a prolonged consolidation and a breakdown of the neckline plotted from the January 10 low at 0.6860 will trigger a bearish reversal. The asset is facing barricades each time encountering the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6398, indicating more weakness ahead. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is struggling to sustain itself in the 40.00-60.00 range. A slippage into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00 will trigger the bearish momentum. A breakdown below the neckline plotted from January 10 low at 0.6860 will drag the asset toward December 28 high around 0.6800. A slippage below the latter will further drag the asset toward December 22 high at 0.6767. In an alternate scenario, a decisive break above the psychological resistance of 0.7000 will drive the asset towards January 18 high at 0.7064 followed by January 26 high at 0.7143. AUD/USD four-hour chart  

Gold price (XAU/USD) remains depressed around $1,860 as sour sentiment underpins the US Dollar rebound during early Monday. Also exerting downside pre

Gold price fades Friday’s bounce off 61.8% Fibonacci golden ratio.Sour sentiment underpins US Dollar, weighs on XAU/USD, even as US Treasury bond yields dribble.Fed speak fails to bolster hawkish bias but US inflation expectations anchor rate hike concerns and tease Gold sellers.Gold price (XAU/USD) remains depressed around $1,860 as sour sentiment underpins the US Dollar rebound during early Monday. Also exerting downside pressure on the XAU/USD could be the fears surrounding the US-China ties, as well as anxiety ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January. While portraying the mood, the S&P 500 Futures fade the previous day’s corrective bounce off a one-week low, down 0.35% around 4,080 at the latest, whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields remain sidelined near 3.73% after refreshing a five-week high on Friday. It should be noted that the fears about the mystery objects flying over the US and China have recently weighed on the sentiment, even as the US General turned down allegations on Beijing. US General turned down the market’s fears of Chinese spying on the US and the likely rush towards the safe havens by saying, “(We) have no reason to think latest objects are Chinese.” Even so, the fact that the US shot down nearly four such objects while China prepares to hit one keeps the matters on the geopolitical table and roil the risk profile. Elsewhere, Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker pushed back the chatters of a Fed rate cut during 2023. However, the policymaker did mention, “Fed not likely to cut this year but may be able to in 2024 if inflation starts ebbing.”  His comments were mostly in line with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious optimism and hence challenge the US Dollar buyers. However, the US inflation expectations per the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) remain firmer around the monthly highs and underpin the hawkish Fed bias, which in turn favor the US Dollar and exert downside pressure on the Gold price. Moving on, Gold traders may witness further downside but the pace might be slow ahead of Tuesday’s US CPI. Should the scheduled US inflation data print strong numbers, hawkish Fed concerns could drown the XAU/USD price. Alternatively, softer US CPI may renew policy pivot talks and trigger the Gold price rebound. Gold price technical analysis Gold’s failure to cross the seven-week-old previous support drags the XAU/USD towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of December 22, 2022, to February 06, 2023 upside, also known as the Fibonacci golden ratio. Other than the failure to cross the key hurdle, sluggish oscillators also favor metal sellers. Adding strength to the support-turned-resistance line is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $1,872. It’s worth noting that the Gold’s ability to cross the $1,872 resistance confluence isn’t going to welcome the bulls as the 200-Simple Moving Average (SMA) will challenge the further upside near $1,890. Alternatively, the aforementioned Fibonacci golden ratio near $1,852 appears immediate support for the Gold price ahead of the January 05 swing low near $1,825. In a case where XAU/USD remains weak past $1,825, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since late December, around $1,820, could challenge the metal bears. Gold price: Four-hour chart Trend: Further downside expected  

The USD/JPY pair is hovering near its day high around 132.00 in the Tokyo session. The asset is expected to refresh a four-day high above 132.00 as in

USD/JPY is looking to extend gains above 132.00 ahead of US Inflation.Airborne threats to the US and anxiety ahead of US Inflation have spooked market sentiment.The Japanese Yen surrendered its entire gains after Kazuo Ueda cited the current policy as appropriate.The USD/JPY pair is hovering near its day high around 132.00 in the Tokyo session. The asset is expected to refresh a four-day high above 132.00 as investors are extremely risk-averse ahead of the United States inflation report and airborne threats near the territory of the United States. Losses by S&P500 futures have escalated further as investors are concerned that a surprise rise in the US inflation will strengthen the case of another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Also, disappointing earnings by the US equities have weakened the risk appetite of the market participants. The solidifying case for more interest rate hikes by the Fed has pushed the 10-year US Treasury yields to nearly 3.75%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has refreshed its three-day high at 103.47 amid the risk aversion theme. Economists at MUFG expect the US Dollar to be underpinned by a strong inflation report. The rationale behind an improvement in the appeal for the US Dollar is the rise in used car prices at the start of this year. Bloomberg reported that average used-vehicle prices rose 2.5% in January according to data from Manheim. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen has surrendered its entire gains recorded after Nikkei Asian Review reported that the Japanese Cabinet is set to appoint academician Kazuo Ueda as the next Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor after Haruhiko Kuroda steps down in April. Kazuo Ueda stated that the current monetary policy is appropriate, which led to a sell-off in the Japanese Yen as the Japanese government has been reiterating that the economy will consider an exit from ultra-dovish monetary policy.  

EUR/USD licks its wounds around 1.0670, after declining to the five-week low, as traders await more catalysts to confirm the latest bearish bias. Addi

EUR/USD seesaws around five-week low as bears take a breather.ECB’s Visco downplays rate hike bias, Fed’s Harker appears confused.Challenges to sentiment amid “unidentified objects” joins cautious mood ahead of key data to weigh on Euro.EUR/USD licks its wounds around 1.0670, after declining to the five-week low, as traders await more catalysts to confirm the latest bearish bias. Adding strength to the recovery moves could be the recent consolidation in the market’s sentiment after US General’s comments. However, the European Central Bank (ECB) official’s dovish comments contrast with comparatively upbeat statements from the Federal Reserve (Fed) policymaker to keep the pair sellers hopeful ahead of the key growth and inflation data from the Eurozone and the US in that order. The US General turned down the market’s fears of Chinese spying on the US and the likely rush towards the safe havens by saying, “(We) have no reason to think latest objects are Chinese.” Even so, the fact that the US shot down nearly four such objects while China prepares to hit one keeps the matters on the geopolitical table and weigh on the sentiment. Earlier in the day, Governing Council member Ignazio Visco mentioned that the ECB must avoid pushing real interest rates too high, given the level of private and public debt in the euro area. The same joins the recently downbeat comments from the ECB policymakers and fears of recession inside the bloc to weigh on the EUR/USD. On the other hand, Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker pushed back the chatters of a Fed rate cut during 2023. However, the policymaker did mention, “Fed not likely to cut this year but may be able to in 2024 if inflation starts ebbing.”  Comments from Fed’s Harker were in line with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) President Thomas Barkin who previously refrained from cheering upbeat US jobs report.  Previously, the majority of the Fed Governors and the US diplomats, including US President Joe Biden and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, ruled out US recession concerns and appear hawkish for the Fed. Hence, there prevails a dilemma among the Fed policymakers which in turn makes this week’s US inflation data all the more important. On Friday, the US inflation expectations per the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) remain firmer around the monthly highs marked in the last week. Further, preliminary readings of the US University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment for February rose to 66.4 versus 65.0 expected and 64.9 prior. Further, the UoM noted that the year-ahead inflation expectations rebounded to 4.2% this month, from 3.9% in January and 4.4% in December.  “Long-run inflation expectations (5-year) remained at 2.9% for the third straight month and stayed within the narrow 2.9-3.1% range for 18 of the last 19 months,” stated the UoM. Amid these plays, the S&P 500 Futures fade the previous day’s corrective bounce off a one-week low, down 0.50% around 4,080 at the latest, whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields remain sidelined near 3.73% after refreshing a five-week high the previous day. As a result, the US Dollar stays firmer due to its safe-haven appear. However, cautious mood ahead of the key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January and the preliminary readings of the Eurozone fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product, up for publishing on Tuesday, seem to probe the EUR/USD bears. Technical analysis EUR/USD needs a clear downside break of the ascending support line from November 30, 2022, around 1.0660, to convince sellers.  

GBP/JPY picks up bids to 158.70 as it grinds inside a two-wee-old triangle formation during Monday’s Asian session. The cross-currency pair prints mil

GBP/JPY pares the previous day’s losses inside fortnight-long symmetrical triangle.Steady RSI backs recent recovery, 200-SMA challenges immediate upside.Multiple supports to test bears on their return.GBP/JPY picks up bids to 158.70 as it grinds inside a two-wee-old triangle formation during Monday’s Asian session. The cross-currency pair prints mild gains after a consecutive two-week downtrend. That said, the recently steady RSI (14) backs the quote’s recovery moves inside the symmetrical triangle. It’s worth noting, however, that the 200-SMA hurdle surrounding 159.30 acts as an immediate upside hurdle for the GBP/JPY buyers to watch before the stated triangle’s top line, close to 159.45 by the press time. In a case where the pair remains firmer past 159.45, the 160.00 psychological magnet holds the key for the GBP/JPY run-up targeting the previous monthly high surrounding 161.85 and then to the last defense of sellers, namely the late December 2022 high near 162.35. Alternatively, a downside break of the 158.30 level will defy the triangle formation and theoretically suggest a slump toward the 143.00 mark. However, multiple hurdles do challenge the GBP/JPY bears before allowing them to cheer the multi-month low. Among them, lows marked during February and January 2023, respectively near 156.75 and 155.35, will precede the September 2022 bottom surrounding 148.80 are the key. Also important to watch is the 150.00 round figure. To sum up, GBP/JPY remains sidelined as it consolidates recent losses. GBP/JPY: Four-hour chart Trend: Upside remains more appealing  

Haitham Al Ghais, the Secretary-General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), said over the weekend at an energy conference

Haitham Al Ghais, the Secretary-General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), said over the weekend at an energy conference in Cairo that the cartel “expects global oil demand to exceed pre-pandemic levels in 2023.” Additional comments “See demand rising to 110mn bbls/day by 2025, citing the improving economic outlook in China as it reopens.” “OPEC remains committed to supporting oil market stability.” “The oil industry had been “plagued by several years of chronic underinvestment.” “Oil industry needs US$500 bn of investment annually until 2045.” Related readsWTI drops from $80.00 as focus shifts to US Inflation for further guidanceS&P 500 Futures drop, yields dribble as “unidentified objects”, Fed’s indecision probe optimists

Risk appetite wanes as the US inflation week begins with the weekend headlines highlighting geopolitical fears and the mixed Federal Reserve (Fed) out

Risk profile remains sour as pre-data anxiety joins geopolitical fears.S&P 500 Futures reverse the corrective bounce off weekly low, US Treasury bond yields grind higher.US, China remain confused over flying objects and raising market’s fears.Fed policymakers appear a bit reserved ahead of US CPI, even as inflation expectations are firmer.Risk appetite wanes as the US inflation week begins with the weekend headlines highlighting geopolitical fears and the mixed Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook. That said, a light calendar in Asia and a cautious mood ahead of the key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January add strength to the market’s favor for risk safety. While portraying the mood, the S&P 500 Futures fade the previous day’s corrective bounce off a one-week low, down 0.50% around 4,080 at the latest, whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields remain sidelined near 3.73% after refreshing a five-week high the previous day. Although the US General turned down the market’s fears of Chinese spying on the US and the likely rush towards the safe havens, the anxiety surrounding the “unidentified objects” flying over the US and Chinese airspace propel the risk-off mood. It should be noted that the US shot down nearly four such objects while China prepares to down one in nearly a week. Elsewhere, Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker pushed back the chatters of a Fed rate cut during 2023. However, the policymaker did mention, “Fed not likely to cut this year but may be able to in 2024 if inflation starts ebbing.”  Comments from Fed’s Harker were in line with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) President Thomas Barkin who previously refrained from cheering upbeat US jobs report.  Previously, the majority of the Fed Governors and the US diplomats, including US President Joe Biden and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, ruled out US recession concerns and appear hawkish for the Fed. Hence, there prevails a dilemma among the Fed policymakers which in turn makes this week’s US inflation data all the more important. On a different page, the US inflation expectations per the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) remain firmer around the monthly highs marked in the last week. It’s worth mentioning that Wall Street closed mixed after the US data pushed back dovish concerns surrounding the Fed. However, receding hopes of the economic slowdown favored the optimists, even as the US Treasury bond yields flagged recession woes. That said, preliminary readings of the US University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment for February rose to 66.4 versus 65.0 expected and 64.9 prior. Further, the UoM noted that the year-ahead inflation expectations rebounded to 4.2% this month, from 3.9% in January and 4.4% in December.  “Long-run inflation expectations (5-year) remained at 2.9% for the third straight month and stayed within the narrow 2.9-3.1% range for 18 of the last 19 months,” stated the UoM. Moving on, market players are likely to remain cautious and may keep favoring the safe havens, like the US Dollar, ahead of Tuesday’s US CPI. On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that it revised the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December to +0.1% from -0.1%, based on updated seasonal adjustment factors.

Reuters reports that British employers expect to raise wages for their staff by the most in at least 11 years but the 5% pay deals for workers would s

Reuters reports that British employers expect to raise wages for their staff by the most in at least 11 years but the 5% pay deals for workers would still fall well below expected inflation. The article cites a survey that was published on Monday. ''With the Bank of England fearing the surge in inflation could be harder to tame if pay deals keep rising, the Chartered Institute of Personnel Development (CIPD) said 55% of recruiters planned to lift base or variable pay this year as they struggle to hire and retain staff in Britain's tight labour market.'' "Skills and labour remain scarce in the face of a labour market which continues to be surprisingly buoyant given the economic backdrop of rising inflation and the associated cost-of-living crisis," Jon Boys, senior labour market economist at the CIPD, said. Reuters explained that, ''expected median annual pay awards in 2023 rose to 5% - the highest since CIPD records began in 2012 - from 4% in the previous three months. More than half of respondents reported having problems filling vacancies, and nearly one in three expected similar issues in the next six months.'' GBP/USD update The Bank of England's Governor Andrew Bailey last week expressed concerns about wage-setting although markets will look to this week's Labour market data that analysts at TD Securities argued ''will likely continue to keep the pressure on the MPC heading into its March meeting.'' ''We look for the Unemployment Rate to fall to just 0.1ppt above its series low and continue to look for another acceleration in ex-bonus wages. We also think headline wage growth stayed strong on a MoM basis.'' Technically, the price is en-route for lower at the start of the week as the following daily chart's thesis illustrates: GBP/USD Price Analysis: The day ahead and initial balance have something for both bulls and bears

The USD/CAD pair has rebounded firmly after building a cushion of around 1.3340 in the Tokyo session. The Loonie asset has extended its recovery firml

USD/CAD has stretched its recovery move above 1.3370 as anxiety soars ahead of US CPI data.A surprise jump in US inflation will compel Fed Powell to continue the policy tightening spell in March.Canada’s weak employment cost index is going to delight the BoC.The USD/CAD pair has rebounded firmly after building a cushion of around 1.3340 in the Tokyo session. The Loonie asset has extended its recovery firmly above 1.3370 as investors are getting anxious ahead of the release of the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI), therefore, pouring funds into the safe-haven assets due to the weak appetite of investors for risky assets. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has refreshed its three-day high at 103.39 as the risk-appetite theme has weakened further. Meanwhile disappointed earnings by the US equities and geopolitical events in which Pentagon has shot down two unidentified flying objects in the past week have impacted the S&P500 futures. Soaring expectations for a jump in the US inflation data, scheduled for Tuesday, is dampening the demand for the US government bonds, which has pushed the 10-year US Treasury yields to 3.74%. The strong US labor market despite squeezing activities and higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) is bolstering the expectations of a surprise upside in the inflation report. An occurrence of the same might force Fed chair Jerome Powell to continue the policy tightening spell to its March monetary policy. Also, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker sees interest rates above 5% this year. On the Loonie front, an upbeat employment report has conveyed that Canadian inflation could attain more stubbornness ahead. The economy added 150K in January, higher than the consensus of 15K and the former release of the 69.2K. The Unemployment Rate remained stable at 5%. The catalyst that was music to the ears of the Bank of Canada (BoC) was the decline in the Average Hourly Earnings data, which dropped to 4.5% from the prior release of 4.7%. A decline in the labor cost index will squeeze consumer spending from the market and will trim inflationary pressures ahead. The oil price has dropped firmly after facing barricades of around $80.00 after a power-pack move. The upside looks favored as Russia has announced a cut in oil production by 5% in retaliation aging price cap levied by 57 to prevent funding for ongoing war against Ukraine. It is worth noting that Canada is a leading exporter of oil to the United States and higher oil prices might strengthen the Canadian Dollar.  

As per mid-week of last week's analysis, GBP/USD Price Analysis: Sell-off cutting into Day-3 longs, 1.2050 eyed for days ahead, the price of the Pound

GBP/USD bears are in play on the backside of last week's bullish trend1.1950 is a target on the downside while 1.2070 is a target to the upside. As per mid-week of last week's analysis, GBP/USD Price Analysis: Sell-off cutting into Day-3 longs, 1.2050 eyed for days ahead, the price of the Pound Sterling fell to test the 1.2050's target as the following illustrates:  GBP/USD prior analysis ''A bullish close on the day will be giving us three bullish closes in a row and leaves the risk of another sell-off on Friday:'' GBP/USD update GBP/USD is on the backside of the trend now. The bears are in play and there are prospects of a continuation towards 1.1950 (daily ATR is 114 pips) with the -272% Fibonacci aligned at that juncture that meets the prior structure looking left. Further down we have the bottom of the new 100 pip box at 1.1900 and 1.1800 there after that meets a -61.8% Fibo.  However, that is not to say there will not be a move up for the day ahead as follows:  Asia could be setting up the lows for the near term for London's session's rally as the chart above illustrates, taking into account the liquidity above 1.2060 and to 1.2070. Such a move would fall within the average daily range of 114 pips and the outcome would complete the daily chart's bearish continuation thesis. 

Market sentiment remains sour during early Monday as the US-China jitters over the “unidentified objects” join the mixed Fed talks and cautious mood a

Market sentiment remains sour during early Monday as the US-China jitters over the “unidentified objects” join the mixed Fed talks and cautious mood ahead of the key US Consumer Price Index (CPI). While the geopolitics and Fed concerns are mixed, the trend from inflation precursors appears to favor the US Dollar’s safe-haven demand. That said, the US inflation expectations per the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) remain firmer around the monthly highs marked in the last week. 10-year inflation expectations per the aforementioned measure remained sidelined near 2.33% by the end of Friday’s North American trading session, after refreshing a two-month high to 2.34% on Wednesday. On the same line, the five-year US inflation expectations rose to a fresh high since December 05, to 2.47% at the latest. It should be noted that an upward revision to the US CPI data for December and the recently firmer US inflation expectations keep the US Dollar buyers hopeful ahead of Tuesday’s key inflation numbers. Also read: US Dollar Index grinds higher past 103.50 as US inflation looms amid mixed Fed concerns

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan at 6.8151 vs. the last close of 6.8158. About the fix China maintains strict con

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan at 6.8151 vs. the last close of 6.8158. About the fix China maintains strict control of the yuan’s rate on the mainland. The onshore yuan (CNY) differs from the offshore one (CNH) in trading restrictions, this last one is not as tightly controlled. Each morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets a so-called daily midpoint fix, based on the yuan’s previous day's closing level and quotations taken from the inter-bank dealer.

AUD/JPY clings to mild gains around 91.00 as global markets remain dicey during early Monday. In doing so, the cross-currency pair seesaws inside a we

AUD/JPY prints mild gains to snap two-week downtrend.Sustained trading beyond 200-SMA, existence of bullish triangle joins steady RSI to favor AUD/JPY bulls.Sellers need validation from 90.00 to retake control.AUD/JPY clings to mild gains around 91.00 as global markets remain dicey during early Monday. In doing so, the cross-currency pair seesaws inside a weekly bullish triangle while floating above the 200-SMA. It’s worth noting that the steady RSI joins the quote’s sustained trading above the 200-SMA to keep AUD/JPY buyers hopeful. Even so, a clear upside break of the weekly bullish triangle, currently between 91.30 and 90.20, becomes necessary for the AUD/JPY buyers to keep the reins. However, a downward-sloping resistance line from January 26, 2023, close to 91.40 at the latest, challenges the AUD/JPY upside. In a case where the cross-currency pair remains firmer past 91.40, the odds of witnessing a run-up toward the previous monthly high near 92.80 can’t be ruled out. That said, the current monthly peak of 91.95 may act as an intermediate halt during the run-up. Alternatively, the 200-SMA level surrounding 90.70 restricts the immediate downside of the risk-barometer AUD/JPY pair. Following that, the aforementioned weekly triangle’s lower line could challenge the AUD/JPY bears around 90.20. Adding to the downside filters is the 90.00 psychological magnet, a break of which could drag the quote toward the late January lows near 88.10. Overall, AUD/JPY remains on the bull’s radar unless breaking the 90.00 round figure. AUD/JPY: Four-hour chart Trend: Further upside expected  

Gold price (XAU/USD) is demonstrating a decline in volatility ahead of the United States inflation data for fresh impetus. The precious metal is displ

Gold price is inside the woods above $1,860.00 as investors await US inflation for fresh cues. Fed Harker sees interest rates above 5% this year as inflation is still elevated.The monthly headline and core CPI are both expected to deliver an expansion by 0.4%, according to a Reuters poll.Gold price (XAU/USD) is demonstrating a decline in volatility ahead of the United States inflation data for fresh impetus. The precious metal is displaying a back-and-forth motion above $1,860.00, however, the downside looks favored amid a sheer decline in the risk appetite of the market participants. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is struggling to deliver a break above the critical resistance of 103.35 in the Asian session. S&P500 futures have added losses further as disappointment from quarterly earnings has faded optimism for the risk-perceived assets. Also, back-to-back events of shooting down unidentified flying objects on the radar of the Pentagon have dampened the market mood. The alpha created on the 10-year US government bonds has dropped marginally below 3.74%. Renewed concerns of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) have spooked market sentiment. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker sees interest rates above 5% this year as inflation is still elevated. He sees on rate cut announcement this year as higher interest rates should remain for a longer period of time to achieve price stability. The release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will provide confident guidance on interest rates. As per the consensus, monthly headline and core CPI are both expected to deliver an expansion by 0.4%, according to a Reuters poll. Gold technical analysis Gold price has tested the breakdown of the Inverted Flag chart pattern on a two-hour scale with weak buying strength. The yellow metal is likely to display a perpendicular downside ahead after the asset will come out of balance. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,866.07 is barricading Gold bulls, which indicates more weakness ahead. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is hovering near 40.00. A breakdown into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00 will activate the downside momentum. Gold two-hour chart  

AUD/USD sellers attack the 0.6900 support amid market’s cautious mood during early Monday, after surprisingly ignoring the US Dollar strength to post

AUD/USD holds lower grounds near one-week bottom, down for the second consecutive day.Indecision over the “unidentified objects” flying over US, China give rise to market’s anxiety.Fed speak appears mixed ahead of the key US CPI.Aussie jobs report also becomes important as RBA remains hawkish.AUD/USD sellers attack the 0.6900 support amid market’s cautious mood during early Monday, after surprisingly ignoring the US Dollar strength to post weekly gains in the last. Anxiety surrounding the “unidentified objects” flying over the US and Chinese airspace gave rise to the market’s cautious mood in addition to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) talks. Also weighing on the risk barometer pair could be the pre-data mood ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, up for publishing on Tuesday. The US and China’s shootings of unidentified objects, with the White House alleging China over spying, seems to weigh on the market sentiment and the risk-barometer AUD/USD pair. Recently, the US General allowed Aussie buyers to take a breather while saying that they have no reason to think latest objects are Chinese. It’s worth noting that the US shot down nearly four such objects while China prepares to down one in nearly a week’s time. On the other hand, Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker pushed back the chatters of a Fed rate cut during 2023. However, the policymaker did mention, “Fed not likely to cut this year but may be able to in 2024 if inflation starts ebbing.”  Comments from Fed’s Harker were in line with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) President Thomas Barkin who previously refrained from cheering upbeat US jobs report. Alternatively, the majority of the Fed Governors and the US diplomats, including US President Joe Biden and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, ruled out US recession concerns and appear hawkish for the Fed. Hence, there prevails a dilemma among the Fed policymakers which in turn makes this week’s US inflation data all the more important. That said, preliminary readings of the US University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment for February rose to 66.4 versus 65.0 expected and 64.9 prior. Further, the UoM noted that the year-ahead inflation expectations rebounded to 4.2% this month, from 3.9% in January and 4.4% in December.  “Long-run inflation expectations (5-year) remained at 2.9% for the third straight month and stayed within the narrow 2.9-3.1% range for 18 of the last 19 months,” stated the UoM. Further, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Friday that it revised the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December to +0.1% from -0.1%, based on updated seasonal adjustment factors. It’s worth observing that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish hike in the last week allowed the AUD/USD to remain firmer but the cautious mood and expectations of downbeat Aussie jobs report, versus the firmer US inflation data, seems to tease AUD/USD bears. While portraying the mood, S&P 500 Futures print mild losses and the US Treasury bond yields remain sidelined. Moving on, a light calendar on Monday highlights the risk catalysts as the key for the AUD/USD pair traders to watch for clear directions. Technical analysis A two-month-old ascending support line, near 0.6900 by the press time, restricts immediate AUD/USD downside.  

USD/JPY could be about to make a move to the upside for this week's initial balance range as the Asian shares fall on Monday. Investors are looking to

USD/JPY bulls are moving in from an area of support made last week at 130.00.USD/JPY bulls eye a -272% of the prior bearish correction's range at 133.70.USD/JPY could be about to make a move to the upside for this week's initial balance range as the Asian shares fall on Monday. Investors are looking to this week's US data in Consumer Prices and Retails Sales, so there is an air of nervousness at the same time that the news of the US air force had shot down a flying object near the Canadian border, the fourth object downed this month, circulates. Officials declined to say whether it resembled the large white Chinese balloon that was shot down earlier this month. This has resulted in the MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan falling at the start of the week by 0.1%, adding to the loss of 2.2% last week. Risk-off themes have tended to benefit the US Dollar lover of the Japanese currency as the Yen lost some of its appeals as the currency of choice to fund so-called carry trades at the turn of last year. Speculators cut bearish bets on it to the lowest level in nearly four months in the wake of December's shock move by the Bank of Japan. The BOJ rocked markets with a decision to loosen the parameters of its yield-control policy, sending the currency soaring by close to 5% on the day of the announcement.  This all leaves the outlook bullish from both fundamental and a technical standpoints as follows: USD/JPY daily chart The price is on the backside of the prior bearish daily trend. The bulls are committing to the upside after a correction of the breakout from prior resistance which offers a foundation for the bulls to stay the course. For the days ahead, there could be prospects proven of a move to 133.70 cemented should the bulls crack 132.80 recent highs: USD/JPY H1 chart This level is marked as the -272% of the prior bearish correction's range and is a common target for continuation trades. 134.0 the figure comes above there as the next milestone for the bulls. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, have sensed selling pressure while attempting to surpass the critical resistance of $80.00 in the Asi

The oil price has sensed selling interest after reaching near $80.00.Russia announced an oil production cut by 5% of its total output in retaliation against the price cap by G7 countries.A surprise jump in the US inflationary pressures might trigger volatility ahead.West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, have sensed selling pressure while attempting to surpass the critical resistance of $80.00 in the Asian session. The oil price has dropped as investors have shifted their focus toward the release of the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will release on Tuesday. The oil price witnessed a buying interest on Friday after Russia announced a cut in the oil supply to retaliate against price caps imposed by G7 countries to restrict Moscow from funding its war essentials against Ukraine. Russia’s energy minister Alexander Novak announced that the nation will cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) which accords 5% of its output in March. The United States Treasury Department has been reiterating that it aims to limit Kremlin’s earnings on each barrel in order to squeeze Moscow’s funding for the war in Ukraine while ensuring Russian oil supplies reach markets that need them. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is on the verge of extending its three-day high above 103.35 in the Asian session on expectations that the US inflation data will deliver a surprise jump amid the tight labor market. Although, the consensus is favoring a decline in the annual headline inflation to 5.8% from the former release of 6.5% and core inflation to 5.4% vs. 5.85 released earlier. Apart from that, the expression of deflation from China’s CPI report released last week indicates that the recovery mode in the second-largest economy after the lifting of pandemic controls is quite slow. The economy will take sufficient time in achieving the pre-pandemic growth rate. This could trim optimism over a sheer recovery in the oil demand.  

EUR/USD bears roll up their sleeves while poking the short-term key support around 1.0660 during Monday’s Asian session, following a two-week downtren

EUR/USD stays depressed around five-week low as bears poke ascending trend line from November 30.Clear downside break of the 50-DMA, 12-week-long previous support joins bearish MACD signals to favor EUR/USD sellers.Buyers have a bumpy road to return unless crossing 1.0800.EUR/USD bears roll up their sleeves while poking the short-term key support around 1.0660 during Monday’s Asian session, following a two-week downtrend. The major currency pair’s bearish performance could be linked to the previous week’s downside break of the 50-DMA, as well as an upward-sloping trend line from November 21, 2022, now resistance near 1.0690. Adding strength to the downside bias are the strongest bearish MACD signals since September 2022. Hence, the quote is all set to conquer the immediate 1.0660 support, which in turn pens the south-run towards the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the EUR/USD run-up from November 2022 to February 2023, respectively near 1.0630 and 1.0530. It’s worth noting, however, that the previous monthly low around 1.0480 could challenge the EUR/USD bears past 1.0530. On the contrary, recovery moves need to cross the immediate support-turned-resistance line from November, close to 1.0690, to convince traders. Even so, the 50-DMA could probe the EUR/USD pair buyers around 1.0710. Following that, a two-month-old ascending resistance line near 1.0800 becomes crucial for the EUR/USD buyers. Overall, EUR/USD is likely to extend its south-run as traders await the key US inflation data. EUR/USD: Daily chart Trend: Further downside expected  

US Dollar Index (DXY) remains sidelined bear 103.60 as the greenback buyers await the US inflation data during early Monday, following a two-week uptr

US Dollar Index stays defensive after two-week uptrend.Fed’s Barkin sounds dovish despite pushing back rate cut talks.US-China tension weigh on sentiment and favor DXY bulls amid dicey markets.US CPI for January appears important after recently firmer US jobs data, inflation cues.US Dollar Index (DXY) remains sidelined bear 103.60 as the greenback buyers await the US inflation data during early Monday, following a two-week uptrend. In doing so, the US Dollar’s gauge versus the six major currencies portray the market’s cautious mood amid firmer US data, mixed comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and geopolitical fears surrounding “unidentified objects” which raised US-China tension. On Friday, preliminary readings of the US University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment for February rose to 66.4 versus 65.0 expected and 64.9 prior. Further, the UoM noted that the year-ahead inflation expectations rebounded to 4.2% this month, from 3.9% in January and 4.4% in December.  “Long-run inflation expectations (5-year) remained at 2.9% for the third straight month and stayed within the narrow 2.9-3.1% range for 18 of the last 19 months,” Stated UoM. Further, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Friday that it revised the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December to +0.1% from -0.1%, based on updated seasonal adjustment factors. Considering the data, Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker pushed back the chatters of Fed rate cut during 2023. However, the policymaker did mention, “Fed not likely to cut this year but may be able to in 2024 if inflation starts ebbing.”  Comments from Fed’s Harker were in line with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) President Thomas Barkin who previously refrained from cheering upbeat US jobs report. On the other hand, majority of the Fed Governors and the US diplomats, including US President Joe Biden and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, ruled out US recession concerns and appear hawkish for the Fed. Hence, there prevails a dilemma among the Fed policymakers which in turn makes this week’s US inflation data all the more important. Not only the mixed Fed and anxiety ahead of the US inflation but the US and China’s shootings of unidentified objects, with the White House alleging China over spying, also seems to weigh on the market sentiment and favor the DXY bulls. During the weekend, the Pentagon shot down a mystery object by saying that it appeared to have traveled near US military sites and posed not just a threat to civilian aviation but also as a potential tool for surveillance. “It was the fourth unidentified flying object to be shot down over North America by a US missile in a little more than a week,” said Reuters. Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures print mild losses and the US Treasury bond yields remain sidelined. Moving on, risk catalysts may entertain DXY traders ahead of Tuesday’s key CPI data for January. Should the scheduled inflation numbers manage to remain firmer, the odds of Fed’s policy pivot gets thinner and allow the US Dollar to remain firmer, which in turn could weigh on prices of commodities and the Antipodeans. Technical analysis A daily closing beyond the 50-DMA, around 103.40 by the press time, hints at the DXY’s ability to cross the descending resistance line from late May, close to 103.75 at the latest.  

Singapore Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) fell from previous 0.2% to 0.1% in 4Q

Singapore Gross Domestic Product (YoY) down to 2.1% in 4Q from previous 2.2%

The GBP/JPY pair sensed the strength and scaled above 158.50 in the early Tokyo session. Despite a recovery move, the cross is still inside the woods

GBP/JPY has rebounded firmly from 158.50 but is still inside the woods.Bets look solid for the appointment of academician Kazuo Ueda for BoJ novel leadership.An increase in the UK labor cost index will escalate troubles for the BoE.The GBP/JPY pair sensed the strength and scaled above 158.50 in the early Tokyo session. Despite a recovery move, the cross is still inside the woods as it is expected to display a volatility contraction move after wild swings reported on Friday. Rising odds for the appointment of academic Kazuo Ueda as the successor of Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda triggered immense volatility in the Japanese Yen. The Nikkei Asian Review reported on Friday that the Japanese Cabinet is set to appoint Kazuo Ueda as the next BoJ Governor after Haruhiko Kuroda steps down in April. The reports also claimed that the Japanese government will nominate ex-FSA Chief Himino, ex-FSA Chief Himino, and BoJ Executive Director Shinichi Uchida for the new Deputy BoJ Governor. The headlines resulted in a perpendicular upside move in the Japanese Yen, however, the move got fizzled out after Kazuo Ueda stated the current monetary policy as appropriate. Japan’s PM Fumio Kishida has been reiterating that the administration will consider an exit from the decade-long expansionary policy with novel BoJ leadership. And, a contrary monetary policy view from academic Kazuo Ueda faded expectations of exit from accommodative monetary policy. On the economic data front, investors are keeping an eye on Japan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) data, which will release on Tuesday. The economic data is seen to expand by 2.0% on an annual basis and 0.5% on a quarterly front. Meanwhile, investors in the United Kingdom are waiting for Employment numbers to get further guidance about the Pound Sterling. The Unemployment Rate for three months is seen unchanged at 3.7%. While the Average Earnings excluding bonuses are expected to increase to 6.5%. This might create more troubles for the Bank of England (BoE), which is struggling to gain an upper hand in the battle against firmer inflation. Over the UK inflation guidance, UK FM Jeremy Hunt is of the view that “If we stick to our plan to halve inflation this year, we can be confident of having amongst the best prospects for growth of anywhere in Europe.”  

NZD/USD holds lower grounds as sellers attack the 0.6300 round figure during Monday’s Asian session, following a lackluster weekly closing. The Kiwi p

NZD/USD stays pressured towards short-term key support after unimpressive weekly close.Sustained U-turn from 200-SMA, looming bear cross on MACD favor sellers.Late January low holds the key to the bear’s defeat.NZD/USD holds lower grounds as sellers attack the 0.6300 round figure during Monday’s Asian session, following a lackluster weekly closing. The Kiwi pair’s weakness could be seen in its inability to cross the 200-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA), as well as a clear downside break of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its January-February upside, near 0.6325 by the press time. Furthermore, a looming bear cross on the MACD adds strength to the downside bias about NZD/USD. However, a clear break of the five-week-old ascending trend line, around 0.6285 by the press time, becomes necessary for the NZD/USD bear’s conviction. Following that, the monthly low near 0.6270 and the previous monthly bottom of 0.6190 will be in focus. On the flip side, the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels, respectively near 0.6325 and 0.6365, restrict short-term NZD/USD recovery ahead of the 200-SMA level surrounding 0.6390. Should the Kiwi pair remains firmer past 0.6390, the 0.6400 round figure and the January 31 swing low, near 0.6415, will be crucial for the NZD/USD buyers to regain control. Overall, NZD/USD is firmly on the bear’s radar but a trigger is important to activate the downside bias, which in turn highlights the aforementioned support line. NZD/USD: Four-hour chart Trend: Further downside expected  

The USD/CHF pair has corrected after facing barricades around 0.9250 in the early Asian session. The Swiss Franc asset has dropped, however, the expec

USD/CHF is aiming to recover after a corrective move amid a risk-off market mood.The asset managed to extend its recovery move above the 23.6% Fibo retracement at 0.9291.An absence of a potential trigger is barricading the RSI (14) in crossing the 60.00 hurdle.The USD/CHF pair has corrected after facing barricades around 0.9250 in the early Asian session. The Swiss Franc asset has dropped, however, the expectations of a recovery move look favored amid the weak risk appetite of the market participants. The asset is likely to display volatility ahead of the Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Jan) on Monday. On a monthly basis, the economic data is seen to expand by 0.3% vs. a deflation of 0.2%. The annual data is seen lower at 2.7% versus 2.8% released earlier. The mega event of this week will be the United States inflation data, which will release on Tuesday. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to remain in action as investors are expecting an acceleration in the inflation figures by 0.4% on a monthly basis. The return provided on the 10-year US Treasury yields has scaled above 3.74%, the highest in a one-month period. USD/CHF has managed to extend its recovery move above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (placed from February low at 0.9051 to February 6 high at 0.9291 on a two-hour scale. The asset is now approaching the supply zone placed in a 0.9280-0.9290 range. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.9227 is acting as major support for the US Dollar bulls. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is struggling to extend into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which indicates an absence of a potential trigger for fresh impetus. For a fresh upside, the Swiss Franc asset needs to deliver a confident break above the aforementioned supply zone, which will drive the asset towards January 12 high at 0.9363 followed by January 6 high at 0.9410. In an alternate scenario, a breakdown below February 9 low at 0.9161 will drag the asset toward the round-level support at 0.9100. A slippage below the latter will drag the asset toward February low at 0.9051. USD/CHF two-hour chart  

USD/CAD seesaws around the mid-1.3300s during the early hours of Monday’s Asian session, after falling the most in five weeks the previous day. In doi

USD/CAD steadies after dropping the most in five weeks the previous day.Strong Canada jobs report, firmer Oil price allowed Loonie bears to sneak in.Hawkish Fed talks, upbeat US data challenge pair sellers ahead of the key US CPI.USD/CAD seesaws around the mid-1.3300s during the early hours of Monday’s Asian session, after falling the most in five weeks the previous day. In doing so, the Loonie pair portrays the market’s consolidation ahead of the key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data amid mixed clues from the United States. The Loonie pair dropped the most since early January on Friday after strong Canada jobs report joined upbeat prices of WTI crude oil, Canada’s key export. That said, WTI crude oil refreshed monthly high to $80.48 the previous day, around the same level by the press time, amid markets chatters that Russia will cut its Oil output by 500,000 barrels in March to counter European sanctions. Elsewhere, Canada’s Net Change in Employment grew past 15K expected and 69.2K prior (revised) to 150K for January. Further, the Unemployment Rate also reprinted 5.0% versus 5.1% expected. The firmer Canada jobs report makes it harder for the Bank of Canada (BoC) to pause its rate hike trajectory, as signalled by the dovish comments from BoC Governor Tiff Macklem, which in turn favored USD/CAD bears. On the other hand, the preliminary readings of the US University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment for February rose to 66.4 versus 65.0 expected and 64.9 prior. Further, the UoM noted that the year-ahead inflation expectations rebounded to 4.2% this month, from 3.9% in January and 4.4% in December.  “Long-run inflation expectations (5-year) remained at 2.9% for the third straight month and stayed within the narrow 2.9-3.1% range for 18 of the last 19 months,” Stated UoM. Further, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Friday that it revised the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December to +0.1% from -0.1%, based on updated seasonal adjustment factors. It should be noted that the recently mixed comments from Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) President Thomas Barkin and the US-China tussles over the ‘unidentified’ objects seem to challenge the sentiment and favor the US Dollar (USD) due to its haven appeal. Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures print mild losses and the US Treasury bond yields grind higher, which in turn favor the US Dollar and the USD/CAD buyers ahead of the key US inflation data. Moving on, the USD/CAD traders should pay attention to the risk catalysts ahead of Tuesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, especially due to the policy pivot talks at the Fed. Technical analysis Unless breaking a convergence of the three-month-old ascending trend line and a 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around 1.3270 by the press time, USD/CAD bears off the table.  

China government mentioned that it has spotted an unidentified object flying over the waters near northern port city Qingdao, after Pentagon shot down

China government mentioned that it has spotted an unidentified object flying over the waters near northern port city Qingdao, after Pentagon shot down an alleged Chinese unidentified object. The authorities also mentioned that they’re ready to shoot it down. The ‘object’ story gained momentum after Pentagon shot down an object during the week by saying that it appeared to have traveled near US military sites and posed not just a threat to civilian aviation but also as a potential tool for surveillance. Also read: Chinese spy-baloon (s) updates

The GBP/USD pair is displaying a sideways action around 1.2050 in the early Asian session. The Cable is expected to display further downside as the od

GBP/USD is expecting further downside to near 1.2000 ahead of US Inflation.Fears of an upside surprise in US inflation and back-to-back Pentagon events are portraying a risk-off impulse.UK FM Jeremy Hunt is confident that the UK inflation will be halved if the administration sticks to its plan. The GBP/USD pair is displaying a sideways action around 1.2050 in the early Asian session. The Cable is expected to display further downside as the odds of a policy tightening pause by the Federal Reserve (Fed) have vanished entirely and more interest rate hikes are expected to continue its battle against stubborn inflation. Renewed concerns of more policy tightening by the Fed and disappointed quarterly earnings forced S&P500 to settle last week with the highest losses since December. This has strengthened the risk-aversion theme further. Also, the Pentagon shot down an unidentified object over Alaska on Saturday. This is the second event in less than a week after the Pentagon shot down the spy Chinese balloon, which was later identified as a civilian by the Chinese administration. The events are portraying more traction for the risk-off impulse. The US Dollar Index (DXY) looks set to add gains above 103.35 ahead of the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, scheduled for Tuesday. A Reuters poll expects further upside in the monthly headline and core inflation by 0.4%. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker reiterated his view that the central bank will continue hiking interest rates to above 5%. The Fed policymaker has favored a small interest rate hike and sees no recession ahead. Also, the expression of a rate cut is unlikely this year. On the United Kingdom front, preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for Q4 remained stagnant as expected by the market participants. Also, the annual GDP matched expectations of 0.4% expansion vs. the former release of 1.9%. The Manufacturing and Industrial Production remained negative but managed to deliver less contraction than expected. UK Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt said “The fact the UK was the fastest growing economy in the G7 last year, as well as avoiding a recession, shows our economy is more resilient than many feared." He further added, “If we stick to our plan to halve inflation this year, we can be confident of having amongst the best prospects for growth of anywhere in Europe.”  

AUD/USD bears were unconvincing on Friday and we have seen little in the way of a commitment so far in the open on Monday, albeit in very early days i

On the hourly chart, 0.6950 is a key level that if broken, could seal a bullish thesis for the days ahead. Bears eye a move to test key structure around 0.6920/00.AUD/USD bears were unconvincing on Friday and we have seen little in the way of a commitment so far in the open on Monday, albeit in very early days in an illiquid open. With that being said, we are down low in the 100 pip box between 0.6900 and 0.7000 and we may continue to work the lows for some time until the bulls make their major move, if at all.  The following illustrates an upside bias due to the daily M-formation and major support zone: AUD/USD daily chart We have already seen moves towards the neckline but they were faded pretty fast. However, arguably, this only makes for a stronger case to move up again as the initial tests have created a pool of liquidity.  Given that we still have not had a breakdown of structure to the downside, below 0.6920/00, and confirmation that a break thereof was not just a stop hunt, (to say 0.6870 and reversal), a bullish thesis can still be valid for the opening balance of the week: AUD/USD H1 chart On the hourly chart, we have 0.6950 to clear before a bullish thesis can be solidified, so it is a case of seeing how the opening range on Monday develops. However, while holding above the trendline and said support, there are prospects of a short squeeze to test 0.6950 for the day ahead. That does not rule out a move into low-hanging fruit below 0.6900 and into the 0.6880s before hand. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) kick-start the key week with mild gains around $1,865 as traders braces for the key United States inflation data. Even if the yel

Gold price begins week’s trading with minor gains after mildly offered weekly closing.Firmer United States statistics, US Treasury bond yields help Federal Reserve hawks and weigh on Gold price.US-China tension contrast with cautious economic optimism to challenge XAU/USD bears.US Consumer Price Index, China-linked headlines will be crucial to convince Gold sellers.Gold price (XAU/USD) kick-start the key week with mild gains around $1,865 as traders braces for the key United States inflation data. Even if the yellow metal is up 0.09% intraday at the latest, the XAU/USD bears remain hopeful as the latest lot of the US statistics have been impressively favoring the hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. Also favoring the Gold bears are the US-China tension and the firmer US Treasury bond yields, not to forget the US Dollar rebound. Upbeat United States economics lure Gold bears Having witnessed a retreat in the US Dollar during the last 2022’s, the return of strong United States data teases the Gold sellers as markets prepare for the key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January. On Friday, the preliminary readings of the US University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment for February rose to 66.4 versus 65.0 expected and 64.9 prior. Further, the UoM noted that the year-ahead inflation expectations rebounded to 4.2% this month, from 3.9% in January and 4.4% in December.  “Long-run inflation expectations (5-year) remained at 2.9% for the third straight month and stayed within the narrow 2.9-3.1% range for 18 of the last 19 months,” Stated UoM. It’s worth noting that the key US sentiment gauge jumped to the highest in over a year and has a likely strong positive impact on the US inflation data, which in turn can weigh on the Gold price, as the trends between the confidence and spending are closely related. Hawkish Federal Reserve officials weigh on XAU/USD price As the recent United States Consumer Sentiment gauge and the inflation expectations join the previous employment numbers, the Federal Reserve (Fed) hawks are likely to reiterate their calls of “way to go” for policy pivot, even if Fed Chair Jerome Powell appears reserved of late. Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) President Thomas Barkin also joined Fed Chair Powell’s league to challenge the Gold bears, backed by higher US Jobless Claims, but majority of others on the board are quite hawkish and can challenge the XAU/USD rebound. It should be noted that Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker mentioned on Friday, “We want economy to keep growing, but also to get inflation under control, that's job one,” which in turn suggests hawkish bias at the Fed. US-China tension, US policymakers’ optimism vs. recession woes probe Gold bulls In nearly one week, the United States brought down three by air-to-air missiles and allege China for spying, which in turn renew geopolitical fears among the world’s top two economies and weigh on Gold price. Adding strength to the XAU/USD bear’s confidence could be the US policymakers’ optimism, including US President Joe Biden and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who ruled out recession woes and favor Federal Reserve (Fed) hawks to maintain their bias for higher rates. Additionally, the US Treasury bond yields curve inversion between the 10-year and two-year coupons also have negative impact on the Gold price. US inflation is the key While a mixed bag of catalysts seem to challenge the Gold traders, this week’s United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January will be crucial as it will help clear the doubt over the Federal Reserve’s next moves. Given the hawkish expectations from the inflation numbers, the odds of witnessing two more Fed rate hikes and further downside for the Gold price can’t be ruled out. However, a surprise downtick in the CPI might new the Fed’s “policy pivot” talks and propels the XAU/USD price. It’s worth noting that the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Friday that it revised the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December to +0.1% from -0.1%, based on updated seasonal adjustment factors. Gold price technical analysis A clear downside break of an ascending support line from November 2022, now immediate resistance near $1,875, joins bearish signals from the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator, to keep Gold bears hopeful. Adding strength to the downside bias is the steady Relative Strength Index (RSI) line, placed at 14. However, a daily closing below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently around $1,857, appears necessary for the XAU/USD sellers to retake control. Following t hat, $1,825 may offer intermediate halt before dragging the Gold price towards a four-month-old horizontal support zone near $1,805. It’s worth noting that the $1,800 round figure will act as an extra filter to the south. Alternatively, an upside clearance of the support-turned-resistance line, near $1,875, needs to cross the previous weekly top surrounding $1,890 and the January’s swing low of $1,900 to recall the Gold buyers. In that case, a run-up towards $1,950 and the latest swing high surrounding $1,960 can’t be ruled out. However, further upside appears difficult as the late March 2022 peak surrounding $1,966 could challenge the XAU/USD bulls afterward. Gold price: Daily chart Trend: Further downside expected  

The EUR/USD pair has showed a pullback move to near 1.0680 in the early Tokyo session. The pullback move by the major currency pair seems to lack stre

EUR/USD is expected to display a downside below 1.0660 as the street fears a surprise rise in US inflation.Fed policymakers see interest rates higher for a more extended period as inflation is still elevated.ECB policymakers have been reiterating that Eurozone won’t face a deep recession, if it happens it will be shallow.The EUR/USD pair has showed a pullback move to near 1.0680 in the early Tokyo session. The pullback move by the major currency pair seems to lack strength and is facing barricades in extending its gains. The shared currency asset is likely to display more weakness after surrendering the immediate support of 1.0660 as the risk-aversion theme is gaining more strength. S&P500 showed recovery late Friday but ended the week on a bearish note amid fresh concerns of a further slowdown in economic activities ahead of the release of the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI), portraying a dismal market mood. Tuesday’s US inflation data will set the undertone for March’s monetary policy meeting by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The US Dollar Index (DXY) refreshed its two-day high at 103.35 and is expected to deliver further upside amid the risk of a rebound in the declining US inflation trend. The demand for US government bonds remained extremely weak as the street is expecting a surprise upside in the US inflation after a bumper US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. This supported the 10-year US Treasury Yields to record a fresh monthly high at 3.74%. A Reuters poll indicates that the monthly headline CPI and core inflation that excludes oil and food prices will escalate by 0.4%. This might force Fed chair Jerome Powell and his mates to look for more interest rate hikes ahead as the battle against inflation could get complex. Last week, Fed policymakers favored the context of higher interest rates for a more extended period as the inflationary pressures are still elevated as the healthy labor market could propel consumer spending. On the Eurozone front, investors are awaiting the release of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) data, which will release on Tuesday. As per the consensus, the economic data for the quarter and on an annual basis is similar to its former releases at 0.1% and 1.9% respectively. This indicates that the Eurozone economy has not seen a recession in CY2022. Also, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers have been reiterating that Eurozone won’t face a deep recession, if it happens it would be shallow as the signs of recovery are extremely solid.  
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